Month-by-month projection
| Month | T1A sales | T1A+B sales | T2 schools (cum.) | Revenue | Costs | Net | Cumulative net |
|---|
What the model shows (read this if you only look at one thing)
The Tier 1 economics carry the operation. Even at 12 self-funded teachers/month with an average ticket of A$199, the gross margin is >98% (marginal cost is essentially Stripe fees + Cloudflare bandwidth). Every Tier 1A sale after the first 50 is almost pure margin.
Tier 2 (school licenses) is the long-tail. One school at A$990/yr — after the upfront CAC — generates 11 years of margin equivalent to a single Tier 1A teacher. Two schools per month adds A$24K ARR by end of year 1. Five schools per month is A$59K ARR. The constraint is sales motion, not unit economics.
Break-even is fast. With the baseline numbers (12 + 4 + 1 sales/mo at the listed prices), break-even on the A$1500 one-off production cost lands inside the first 4 months. After that it's gravy.
Sensitivity: the model is most sensitive to monthly Tier 2 sales in years 2 and 3 — they're the compounding tail. It's least sensitive to per-unit price (raising Tier 1A from A$149 to A$199 vs A$249 makes ~A$3K/yr difference; gaining 1 extra school/month makes A$12K/yr).
Scenarios: the four preset buttons load realistic conditions. "Conservative" assumes a slow ramp + 5 teachers/mo + 0.5 schools/mo (one every 2 months). "Optimistic" assumes Drama Victoria article drives 30 teachers/mo + 3 schools/mo for 3 months post-publication. "Home run" assumes the Toddle partnership tips off ~50 teachers/mo + 8 schools/mo within 6 months of partnership launch.
What's NOT in the model: Tier 1B bundle upgrades (treated as part of Tier 1A+1B revenue but not separately churned), refunds for Music Tech tier (auto-refunded by webhook, doesn't reach revenue), Drama Victoria sponsorship costs (one-off if pursued), staff time for school onboarding (currently zero — schools self-onboard via Stripe).